Even prior to the Trump interlude in the United States, there were enough signs that the world was witnessing uncertainty across many sectors. This was a heralding of problematic conditions in many areas of the globe, and policymakers, strategists and business leaders had begun to prepare for more difficult times ahead. Some did, however, hew to the view that new analytical tools and strategic methodologies which were in use would help mitigate the levels of uncertainty in the course of time.
Leader-led disruption
Notwithstanding this, the majority adhered to the view that the recent shifts in global hegemonies, the spate of disruptive technologies and also prevailing geopolitical tensions were certain to herald more disruption, accompanied by an increase in geopolitical tensions and economic tsunamis. The general consensus, hence, is that given the influence wielded by leaders such as Xi Jinping of China, Vladimir Putin of Russia, and Donald Trump in the U.S. — not excluding the role of leaders such as Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy, intent on disrupting the existing order — there is little hope of change for the better.
Few parallels, perhaps, exist for this state of affairs, at least in the recent period. Many also hew to the view that this is the beginning of a new phenomenon in the history of the world — one which has the potential to not only disrupt but also overturn the existing order. Such a situation, many also believe, would be very different from what had existed since the early 21st century, which was marked by considerable turbulence.
The U.S., which since 1945, had trumpeted the view that it is the fountainhead of democracy, is itself beginning to witness disruption of a kind that it has not seen in recent centuries. One consequence of this has been an escalation in tensions between the U.S. and several other countries. Most important, however, is that the situation is leading to what some experts estimate to be a ‘cauldron of unexpected consequences’.
Today, the U.S. appears like a nation divided. Seen as a pillar of democratic stability, it is currently grappling with profound internal divisions. This. in turn, has had an adverse impact on its relations with countries across the globe. One reason for this is, no doubt, Mr. Trump’s new tariff war — which demonstrates a profoundly transactional approach — the impact of which has been to turn the world upside down. This is having a highly unsettling effect on global trade. Already leading economists assess that the impact of tariffs has led to sharp decline in the growth potential of the U.S., and brought down its GDP.
The U.S. President also seems not unwilling to shoot himself in the foot. Trumponomics now involves inflicting crippling wounds on world famous educational institutions such as Harvard and Columbia. It has targeted foreign students (who reportedly contribute over $40 billion to the U.S. economy, and sustain over 4,00,000 American jobs). This again is likely to adversely impact the future of the U.S., and, incidentally, its intrinsic capabilities.
In Europe and West Asia
In the meantime, with Mr. Trump’s ascendancy, Europe finds itself in a serious dilemma. Embroiled in a conflict with Russia over Ukraine for the past three years (which shows no signs of ending, despite recent peace efforts initiated by Mr. Trump), what Europe is now staring at is pronounced uncertainty about its future and that of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The European Union is today a pale shadow of what it appeared to be only a few months back — Mr. Trump’s recent diatribes about Europe’s inability to defend itself is further adding to concerns about its future.
The situation in West Asia seems even bleaker. Israel’s continuing offensive in the Gaza sector and beyond is amounting to a virtual pogrom (and with the U.S. and the West refusing to restrain Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu), the situation in the region is possibly the worst ever in recent decades. Further, Israel appears intent on redrawing the geography and the destiny of the region, and is actively seeking to achieve a larger geographical presence for itself, including seeking territories that had never previously been Israeli.
Elsewhere in West Asia, the situation appears to be only worsening. Even as Israel appears impervious to existing ceasefire agreements and is looking further afield to set up permanent positions in Syria, the administration there under its new leader, Ahmed al-Shara, appears to be on the brink of collapse, having disbanded the army and security services, purged the civil services of all Alawite elements, and abolished all political parties, thus, making it easier for Israel to establish its stranglehold over the region. Old feuds such as those between Ethiopia and Eritrea have meanwhile reemerged across North Africa. Türkiye is in turmoil with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan having created a tempest by arresting his principal political opponent before the elections. More problematic is that there are ominous signs that Israel, on the pretext that Iran is about to go nuclear, is contemplating a strike to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
Meanwhile, the past few months have seen Islamic State (IS) affiliates moving out of the West Asian region, carrying out a series of attacks in Mozambique, Democratic Republic of Congo, pockets in North Africa and extending activities into Afghanistan. The revival of the IS is something that the world needs to worry about, as it could mark the revival of terrorist activities across many parts of the globe.
Events in Asia
Pronounced indifference, meantime, by the world to events in parts of Asia have masked the reality of what is taking place in these regions. Both Afghanistan and Pakistan are today facing a great deal of internal turmoil and tensions, and alongside this, have also come within the crosshairs of terrorist groups such as the IS and its affiliates. A fresh wave of terror attacks, not only within both these countries, but further afield, is also beginning to be seen. While some are a leftover from the past, such as al-Qaeda and the IS, many are being sponsored by new affiliates. All this is providing a beachhead for a new brand of terrorists. Quite a few new terror attacks have, hence, occurred across the region. The latest was an attack on tourists in Pahalgam, in Kashmir on April 22, in which 26 people were killed. While regions in Asia, to the north and west of India, seem caught up in a fresh wave of violence, the situation elsewhere in the region is again far from happy. Countries such as Bangladesh, Myanmar and Nepal situated to India’s east, currently face internal turmoil of different kinds.
Further to India’s east, the ubiquitous China-Taiwan problem remains unresolved, though it has not yet to come to the boil. China appears more intent at present on finding solutions for its economic woes, and on how best to outflank Mr. Trump in his current tariff offensive. Meanwhile, Southeast Asia is seeing fresh signs of a Chinese economic and peace offensive. As the U.S. takes a back seat in regard to political manoeuvrings in Asia, what is evident is that China is exploiting this situation to its benefit. India may have reason to think that the recent accord/adjustments between India and China (at the border in Ladakh) marks a return to peaceful coexistence, but the reality would seem to be otherwise. China-India rivalry for the heart of Asia, hence, remains more intense than ever. Many other countries in the region, meantime, appear to be ‘tilting’ towards China. China is taking full advantage of this, and is intent on demonstrating its naval strength in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, going well beyond its ‘nine-dash-line’ by venturing into the South Pacific. It has also increased its presence and the numbers of its submarines in the Indian Ocean region. The Asian region, hence, remains wide open, needing India to be on its guard against any and all eventualities.
M.K. Narayanan is a former Director, Intelligence Bureau, a former National Security Adviser, and a former Governor of West Bengal
Published – May 01, 2025 12:16 am IST