Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, whose Liberal Party won Canada’s federal election, though the outright majority is still in question.
| Photo Credit: DAVID KAWAI
It is rare for the results of an elections in one country to be swayed by the leader of a neighbouring country. Yet that was the case in Canada’s 2025 federal election, where U.S. President Donald Trump’s statements and actions dramatically shifted the national mood within days.
While the Conservative Party was expected to win decisively, Mr. Trump’s tariffs and his provocative suggestion of annexing Canada helped rescue the Liberal Party from a crushing defeat.
Chart 1 shows the voting intentions of Canadians based on opinion polls conducted during the campaign period.
The lines represent the average of 30 polls conducted between 2021 and 2025. As the chart illustrates, towards the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023, support for the Conservatives began rising, while support for the Liberal Party started declining.
This marked shift can be attributed to the unpopularity of former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose fiscal policies and generous immigration stance faced heavy criticism.
Just before Mr. Trudeau resigned in January this year, popular support for the Liberal Party had fallen to 20% — the lowest level for the party in years. In contrast, support for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party had surged to 45%. Barring any dramatic shifts, the Conservatives appeared poised for victory.
However, shortly after Mr. Trudeau’s exit and more significantly after Mr. Trump’s return to the White House was confirmed in February, there was a dramatic rise in support for the Liberals, as seen in Chart 1.
From last December, Mr. Trump repeatedly reiterated his claims about annexing Canada.
In March, he announced tariffs of 25% targeting Canada and Mexico. Canadians did not take these threats to their economy and sovereignty lightly.
More importantly, sensing the shift in public mood, the Liberals centred their election campaign around the theme of ‘American betrayal’. In contrast, Mr. Poilievre’s slogan ‘Canada First’ and promises appeared uncomfortably close to Mr. Trump’s promises in the eyes of many voters.
While the Liberal Party has started celebrating, the party is still short of the majority mark and may need help from smaller parties to form the government.
The party’s former ally — the New Democratic Party (NDP) — suffered a massive setback this election, possibly because most of its voters backed the Liberals this time.
Chart 2 | The change in vote share (in % points) in the 2025 elections when compared with 2021
As shown in Chart 2, the NDP recorded a 11.6% point drop in vote share compared to the 2021 elections. While the vote share of the Liberal Party rose by nearly 11% points, the Conservative Party also managed a 7.7% point increase. But this was not enough to derail the resurgence of the Liberals.
The Liberals are projected to win 69 seats in Ontario — fewer than the 78 they had secured in 2021 — a minor setback amid the national victory. In this province, the Conservatives have improved their performance and are projected to win 53 seats, up from 37.
In Quebec, the Liberals appear to have eaten into the vote share of the Bloc Québécois. This party’s main plank is Quebec’s secession from Canada. The Liberals are projected to win 43 seats in the province, up from 35 in the last election, while the Bloc Québécois seat share is set to fall to 11 from 32.
In British Columbia, the New Democrats, who had won 13 seats last time, are expected to secure only three. Meanwhile, the Liberals are projected to increase their tally from 15 to 20 seats, and the Conservatives from 13 to 19.
Chart 3 shows the province-wise seats secured by parties in the 2025 election.
The data for chart 1 is an average of 30 opinion polls. The data for charts 2 and 3 were taken from Elections Canada.
With inputs from Raida N.M. and R.P. Josmani Joan, who are interning with the data team
Published – May 01, 2025 07:00 am IST